There's currently three carrier assault groups in or around the Persian Gulf and for the first time ever a Navy guy is going to be appointed as the head of CENTCOM - which might indicate that the navy might playa crucial role. On top of everything, Bush is ramping up the "Iran-is-to-blame-for-all-problems-in-Iraq" rhetoric, so I'm thinking that a casus belli will be coming soon.
Well, let's look at it bit by bit.
There are multiple reasons that the Navy is getting CENTCOM's command. One is that the Army has done ****ed up. Everything. The Marines have generally come through (we've got a Marine in charge of the Joint Chiefs for that) but it's not considered politically correct to praise them for their successes because of some things a minority have done. The Navy is the only service that has delievered a 100% success rate however.
A Navy guy in command of CENTCOM basically means however that if the war comes, there will be no ground war. We're looking at a reprise of the '70s and '80s. Operations Earnest Will and Preying Mantis, the Tanker War. The USN has been the traditional implement of imposing chastisement on the uppity in the Gulf, and a very successful one. You can ask the crews of the Joshan and Sahand if you don't believe me.
The Iranian Navy will not last long. I give it about a week. Their air force may prove more difficult to exterminate but will never be a serious factor. The danger if there is one lies in their mining the Straits of Hormuz and possibly all the mobile Silkworm batteries they've bought. The Silkworms are vunerable to air attack, however, and Iran uses the same kind of Soviet-style air defense system that was so spectacularly demolished in the opening hours of the First Gulf War. As for mine warfare, the USN is better equipped to deal with the threat then they were 5 years ago.
That and of course mining the Straits of Hormuz will piss off pretty much the entire world, and everyone from Poland to China can be expected to contribute to trying to keep them clear.
We may or may not see a similar Scud situation as we did in the First Gulf War, but the US has given much thought and effort to the problem of Theater Ballistic Missile defense since then...and the Scud hasn't gotten any more accurate.
And you know, Iran is at least tactly allowing some of the problems in Iraq to continue. More problem people and things come in that way then any other.
