[FUBAR-BDHR]

Huh? But how does that relate to Xbox Live usage? Non-modded consoles are by definition locked to a single network.

Unless I'm missing something obvious here,

Well if they are already unlocked why not give them a way to change the network they connect to.  Microsoft would have had to allow for that via updates of some kind.  Heck it might be possible to change it using a CD of some kind to change the settings.  1 million users is a good start.  More will want to join and Microsoft will be left with the option of letting them change networks or forcing live on them and looking like even bigger tyrants then they already are which would push even more people to modding their consoles to join other networks.  

Locking one device to one network isn't going to work forever.  Just ask Apple and AT&T.  

[FUBAR-BDHR]

Dang it Kara don't post the same thoughs as me at the same time. 

[karajorma]

Sorry FUBAR.

I don't think MS should have the right to ban you from working on your own paid for equipment.  Wonder how that TOU would hold up in a court.  

License agreements are in general not legally binding, but the odds are pretty good they'd win this one. Live is their service, they have a right to distribute it in whatever manner they deem fit.

Never having used an XBox I have no idea how the Gamertag sign up works. But if they take the money before the user connects they might have trouble defending this :

"When a Gamertag comes up as violating our policies for online behavior, the person who owns that Gamertag is punished by being banned from the service. Keep in mind, this isn't just a ban on a particular game. This is a ban on the Xbox Live service as a whole, so you won't be able to go online at all during your ban. Initially, you may be banned for a day, a week, or depending on severity, permanently! Kiss that $50 goodbye."

If they're taking $50 off people to use XBox Live and then closing up shop almost immediately they might have to justify why they aren't checking if they're going to let the person use their service before taking their money.

[General Battuta]

Yeah, but alternative/free networks for the Xbox have have already been around for years. If one million people decide to switch over, that could be a problem for Microsoft, but I'm not sure I could definitively say that the cost there outweighs the benefits. Particularly since only a tiny fraction of that one million will probably make any kind of change.

I understand the predictions Kara and FUBAR are making, but I don't see data to support them yet. The iPhone is a runaway success and its business model (while distasteful) has worked.

'Suicidal business decision' is the statement I'm disagreeing with. I'm not certain we have any indications that a total collapse of the Xbox Live model would result from this recent wave of bannings.

The psychological question I'd ask is whether anyone would care if these bannings had been carried out in small batches over a period of years.

[karajorma]

I don't know enough about the iPhone to make much in the way of sensible comments about it but I can't see a motivational force as big as the XBox's "Stick this chip in your machine and you can play pirated games online for free!"

Until now there simply hasn't been much reason to switch from XBox Live. Sure the $50 was a lot of money but the free networks aren't worth joining cause no one plays on them. Now there is a reason to use them. While I don't doubt that MS will still keep making money on the XBox this decision could very easily result in them making less. They've actually made it attractive to join alternative networks. And in business it's never a good idea to basically hand 1/20th of your market over to your direct competitors in one move.

As for what the effect of doing it slowly would be, that would definitely have been a smarter choice. Dumping 1 million of their more tech savvy users on the same day is a bad idea for them.

[General Battuta]

I feel like I need more data on any of these topics before commenting further.

At the moment, however, this decision is one I'm willing to cautiously applaud. Mod chips were a big problem for the, er, 'real' users in the past, at least in terms of running into jackasses with flying Warthogs and submachine guns that fired plasma grenades.

I doubt Microsoft will face 'suicidal' or particularly destructive backlash, and it seems like banning users for violating the TOU is well within their rights. The creation of a shadow Live would be an interesting phenomenon, but my intuition (unreliable, yes) does not suggest that it would be a major threat to Microsoft's operation.

Part of my caution also stems from the fact that this issue seems ideologically and politically sensitive, which means people have probably been through polarization and attitude inoculation already.

[karajorma]

Well that's the thing, I'm not saying this is definitely going to be a bad decision. All MS have done is opened a door. It remains to be seen if anyone walks though it.

I can very easily see MS having to climb down over this issue if anyone does come up with an alternative though.

Besides even if it's not a major threat, I still like the idea of a Mozilla to Live's IE springing up.

[Mongoose]

This isn't one free browser versus another, though...it's the sole official multiplayer/networking/social channel of the console, with who knows how many features at this point, versus some fly-by-night applications that enable you to play online with a few friends if you're lucky.  It's where all of the players all, where you earn achievements, where you download patches and DLC for the games you own, where where you can view titles from Netflix, where you do everything  Everyone I know of who's owned an XBox/360 for some time generally speaks highly of Live's feature set. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see the vast majority of the banned users show up again in the near future with new accounts on unmodded consoles.  They really don't have any other practical recourse if they're at all interested in the online side of the 360.

And let's not forget that these people were modifying their boxes to circumvent DRC for the douchebag purpose of pirating an unreleased game.  They ain't getting any sympathy from me.

[Pyro MX]

It's also important to note that Microsoft maybe did so in response to 3rd party queries :

InformationWeek speculated that because pirated versions of the game appeared on various sharing sites in advance of the release, the game's developer may have exhorted Microsoft to enact the bans.

Either way, I have yet to see a good anti-piracy solution here. Locking'em out of the network probably won't stop people from pirating copies of the games. Maybe discourage some...

[FUBAR-BDHR]

Wait so by doing this Mickysoft is not only slashing their own throats but hurting companies like netflix that just lost a million potential customers from the service? 

[NGTM-1R]

You have yet to prove they've cut their own throat. Your righteous indignation is, simply put, amusing. They were completely within their rights to do what they have done.

[SpardaSon21]

No one here is saying that Microsoft didn't have the right to do this.  What we are saying is that Microsoft just pissed off one million customers by banning them from Xbox Live.

[General Battuta]

But that on its own doesn't mean much. I'm sure people are pissed off when they get tossed in jail, for instance.

[SpardaSon21]

But how many of those customers will keep buying games for the 360, and how many will defect to the PS3?

[General Battuta]

Why is that relevant? 

Are you suggesting that the 360's marketing tactic should be to permit game piracy and terms of use violations?

I'm fairly certain the 'console war' as framed in that question is a myth anyway.

[NGTM-1R]

None. The people who are chipping up their boxes most likely already own both.

And let's face it, kids. One million is not actually a huge portion of the Live userbase by now.

[FUBAR-BDHR]

I hear it's about 5%.  No idea how to confirm that.  

Spoke too soon.  Google turned up 20 million subscribes as of May.  So 5% would be a good guess.

[General Battuta]

Pretty minimal, then.

Given the number of utter pricks on Live, I doubt they'll be missed.

[Fenrir]

The thing is, MS is actually going to be selling a lot of new consoles this way. A lot of modders still like to play on LIVE, so they're gonna go off and buy a LIVE-capable console. I've seen a ton of people on other forums doing exactly that. And it works since when a 360 is banned, in most cases it's the console that's revoked and not the LIVE GamerTag. So you move it over to a new console and you're free to play by the rules this time or try modding that one instead

[Scotty]

And it works since when a 360 is banned, in most cases it's the console that's revoked and not the LIVE GamerTag.

Citation needed.  Personal experience says its the tag.